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The Forecast-based Action (FbA) by the DREF allocated CHF 216,169 to implement early actions to reduce and mitigate the impact of Cyclones in Mozambique in the frame of the Cyclone Early Action Protocol (EAP) and the tripartite FbA Fund Project Funding Agreement (PFA) between CVM, German Red Cross (GRC) and IFRC.
The global budget is sub-divided into three budget categories allocated to the pre-positioning of stock, implementation of readiness activities, as well as the early action intervention to be disbursed once the protocol is activated. The present report serves as a narrative for the activities financed through the PFA funds and outlines the main achievements and overview of people reached through the Cyclone EAP activation on 27 December 2020.
This is the first activation for Mozambique since the approval of the EAP in 2019 and it occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic State of Calamity declared by the Government of Mozambique as well as during CVM’s collective holidays with headquarter staff on leave. The consortium of the PFA managed, nevertheless, to activate the Cyclone EAP and assure the deployment of the readiness team to the district of intervention, as well as mobilize 50 Red Cross volunteers to support the early action operation in the three days of lead time on the ground.
On 22 December 2020, CVM’s FbF team was alerted by its credible international forecast sources – PIROI and Météo-France – that a tropical depression was forming in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean that continued to strengthen as it moved westward towards Madagascar. The tropical depression evolved into a tropical storm on 24 December and was named “Chalane”, with forecasts indicating an intensifying trend in its evolution and high likelihood of reaching the Tropical Cyclone (TC) category. The national competent meteorological agency, the National Meteorological Institute of Mozambique (INAM), indicated that the forecasted cyclone track was signalling a high likelihood of landfall on the coastline central Mozambique between the 29 and 30 December, impacting on the provinces of Nampula, Zambézia and Sofala.
The Mozambique Red Cross Society (CVM) made the decision to activate its Cyclone EAP in anticipation of Tropical Cyclone “Chalane” on the evening of Sunday, the 27 December 2020. The tripartite decision to activate was made based on the available forecast for that day from the defined forecast sources, Météo-France and INAM, which indicated Chalane making landfall with maximum sustained wind speeds just below the defined trigger of 120 km/h. Despite the trigger not having been met as per forecasts from 27 December 2020, the decision was made to activate the protocol, as experts from INAM indicated a high probability of rapid intensification of TC Chalane over the Mozambique channel due to favourable conditions (high sea surface temperature, high levels of humidity) in the channel.
Next to the expert opinion provided, a joint analysis considered heightened levels of vulnerability, as the trigger of the Cyclone EAP was developed based on a reality of vulnerabilities of the Mozambican population prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the forecasted track signalled TC Chalane making landfall in the region most heavily impacted by TC Idai, which had led to a severe humanitarian crisis and left communities with a lengthy process of recovery and reconstruction. The heightened levels of vulnerability, paired with expert opinions signalling the high likelihood of rapid intensification of TC Chalane over the Mozambique channel, led to a joint, consensus-based decision to activate the Cyclone EAP. The Early Action Notification was sent to the Cyclone EAP project manager at IFRC on the evening of the 27 December and FbA by DREF funds allocated by the Treasury in Geneva on the 28 December.
Based on CVM’s composite vulnerability index, exposure in accordance with the forecasted cyclone track, as well as operational capacity of CVM’s district branches, the decision was made to target the early action operation to 1,500 households of Búzi District, Guara-Guara Administrative Post.
The wider humanitarian community in Mozambique was alarmed by the approaching hazard but signalled little availability of financial and human resources to initiate action based on the forecasts, as they had shifted their operational focus to Cabo Delgado due to the intensifying armed conflict in that region. The Mozambique Red Cross was at a later stage congratulated by the Resident Coordinator (RC) on behalf of the humanitarian country team (HCT) for their ability for swift, early action and for representing the wider humanitarian community in such a positive light.
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